The British public no longer trusts its politicians on
foreign wars since being led to war by Prime Minister Tony Blair. Tony Blair staked the reputation of
British politics, British intelligence services and the Special Relationship on
his assertion that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, and the British public
has not forgotten. When no weapons
were discovered, he was left looking like a charlatan who had taken the country
to war on false pretences.
Thousands died, the region was destabilised and the dark forces of
Islamic extremism were able to manipulate events for propaganda purposes
against the West and to influence the weak-minded.
There are many reasons why David Cameron should fear being
regarded as the “Heir to Blair”, but no more so than in his need to gain public
support for military action in Syria. David Cameron is of course a very different man
from Tony Blair, to start with he is a member of a different political
party. His reasons for wishing to
launch air strikes in Syria are not because of uncertain intelligence about the
existence of weapons of mass destruction that are alleged to be an imminent
threat to the U.K. No, his reasons
are humanitarian and are because chemical weapons have already been used.
David Cameron is however faced with very similar problems to
Tony Blair – a close vote in Parliament, unpopularity of military action in the
country and Security Council members opposed to action (with poor human-rights
records of their own). The UK, the
US and France are relying on the duty to protect that falls to the UN since the
Rwandan genocide and the UK government has legal advice to the effect that to
intervene for humanitarian reasons is legal even without a UN resolution.
It is not clear whether Assad’s regime at the highest level
was responsible for using chemical weapons while UN weapons inspectors were in
the country and near to the site of the attack. It is of course possible a rogue commander on the ground
acted unilaterally. It has also
been alleged that some rebel groups are trying to get hold of chemical
weapons. It is not at all
predictable what the fallout would be of Western air strikes and whether
retaliation would result in a strike on Israel and then a conflagration across
the region (Lebanon is already being pulled into Syria’s War).
What is clear is that the British public has lost its faith
in the political class when it comes to going to war. Politically it is not feasible that David Cameron would act
as he can legally in British law and simply launch strikes by use of the Royal
Prerogative. Since Blair held the
vote on Iraq, Parliament will now always be consulted. That may not be enough to reassure the
British public.
You do not have to be an expert in Middle Eastern politics
to understand that removing that hideous tyrant Saddam Hussein destabilised
Iraq and the region, giving a foothold to Sunni extremists such as Al
Qaeda-in-Iraq in rebellion against the new pro-Iranian Shi’ite government. Many voters will feel we are again
heading down the same road.
It is clear even to the most casual observer that the removal of secular
military tyrants in the Middle East does not mean an alternative of
liberally-democratic parties taking power, rather political Islam is moving in,
whether in Egypt or Tunisia. In Syria minorities, including Christians, depend
upon the Ba’athist regime to protect them from Islamism.
Of course, there is a case to be made that the purpose of
military action is to send a message that the use of chemical weapons is a
moral Rubicon that should not be crossed.
The Government is proposing joining air-strikes as a punitive response
to the chemical attack, not as the beginning of a process towards regime
change. The British public though will be very hard to convince. If air strikes lead to a worsening of
the situation and a chain reaction, ending in the replacement of Bashar al-Assad’s
regime with an Islamist government with control of chemical weapons, then the
British public will not forgive the political class and the level of distance
between the nation’s politicians and the nation will become even more of a
chasm.
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